South African Exporters Defy Rising US Tariffs, Maintain Shipments Despite Uncertainty Over Trump-Era Duties
South African exporters to the United States are pressing ahead with shipments despite a 30% increase in duties since August 7, showing resilience in the face of tariff uncertainty and shifting trade policy.
The development comes as the US Federal Appeals Court ruled last weekend that former President Donald Trump exceeded his authority by using emergency powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from about 80 countries.
Washington has until October 1 to appeal the ruling, leaving the outlook for exporters uncertain.
Terry Gale, chairperson of Exporters Western Cape, said South African shippers and freight forwarders should remain cautious until clarity emerges.
“It’s difficult to say as nothing is certain,” Gale explained. “Anything can happen, and we know how stubborn Trump can be. What’s encouraging is that exporters are staying the course, sending loads to the US no matter what.”
He added that exporters, particularly in manufacturing and agriculture, could not simply halt shipments due to tariff hikes, as they are bound by contractual obligations to US clients.
“For example, fruit producers and a manufacturer of fine wood wares in Atlantis cannot just stop exports because costs are rising,” he said.
As both a forwarder and chairperson, Gale advised exporters to continue paying CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) and CFR (Cost and Freight) duties until greater clarity is available.
While US clients prefer DDP (Delivered Duty Paid) and DAP (Delivered at Place) terms, Gale urged freight agents to act responsibly by keeping clients updated with daily trade briefings and carefully navigating tariff implications.
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group, said it remains too early to predict the full impact of tariff changes, particularly if “reciprocal tariffs” come into play.
He noted that the August 7 tariff hikes had produced an unexpected outcome.
“The revenue generated from the tariffs is higher than projected, while the anticipated price impact on imported consumer goods has been less severe than initially feared,” Roodt said.
According to US trade data, tariff revenue increased by $20 billion since the new duties were introduced, rising from $30 billion to $50 billion.
Although consumer inflation linked to tariffs has so far remained muted, analysts warn that the share of tariff costs passed to consumers could climb from 22% to as high as 70%.
Roodt said this strengthens Trump’s position on tariffs:
“The positive revenue effect suggests that Trump will ultimately have the final say over what is considered good or bad for the US economy.”
For now, exporters are urged to stay cautious, continue fulfilling contracts, and remain updated as the October 1 appeal deadline approaches.
The coming weeks may determine whether South African exporters face relief or further headwinds in the critical US market.
