With a potential strike looming at East and Gulf Coast ports in January and President-elect Donald Trump planning to raise tariffs, the United States’ major container ports are expected to experience a continued surge in imports.
The latest Global Port Tracker report, released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts that the surge will last until spring 2025.
“Either a strike or new tariffs would be a blow to the economy, and retailers are taking steps to minimize the impact of both for as long as possible,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “We hope to avoid both situations, but bringing in cargo early is a prudent move to protect our industry, consumers, and the economy. We urge both parties at the ports to return to the negotiating table, finalize a deal, and avoid a strike. We also call on the incoming administration to use tariffs strategically rather than imposing broad-based tariffs on everyday consumer goods.”
Strike Threatens Port Operations
Talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance recently broke down over port automation issues, leaving the possibility of a strike after the current contract extension expires in January 2025. Last week, NRF led a coalition of trade associations in sending a letter urging both parties to return to negotiations.
Meanwhile, President-elect Trump has indicated plans to increase tariffs on a range of goods once he takes office on January 20, adding further uncertainty to port operations.
Retailers Prepare for Potential Disruptions
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that retailers are under pressure as they work to frontload cargo to avoid disruptions from a potential strike and higher costs due to tariffs.
“The chances of reaching a quick resolution on the key issue of automation are not looking good,” Hackett said. “The window for frontloading goods before a potential strike is closing quickly. Additionally, with Trump’s promise to increase tariffs, shippers are rushing to move as much cargo as they can before the new tariffs take effect.”
Port Traffic Projections
In October, US ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled 2.25 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), down 1.2% from September but up 9.3% year-on-year. Final data from the Port of Miami has yet to be reported. November’s forecast is 2.17 million TEUs, marking a 14.4% increase year-over-year, while December is projected at 2.14 million TEUs, up 14.3%.
The total volume for 2024 is expected to reach 25.6 million TEUs, a 14.8% increase compared to 2023. The forecast for January 2025 is 2.2 million TEUs, up 12% from the previous year, while February is projected at 1.87 million TEUs, a 4.1% decrease due to fluctuations from the Lunar New Year shutdowns at Asian factories. March is expected to rise 12.7% to 2.17 million TEUs, and April is forecast to increase by 6.6% to 2.15 million TEUs.
