The exploration of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province is facing renewed challenges due to ongoing threats from Islamic State insurgents based in rural areas like Chiure and Macomia, near the Port of Pemba, and Nangade along the Rovuma River, which borders Tanzania.
In the latest wave of violence in the country’s northeastern province, the United Nations estimates that 10,140 people were forced to flee their homes in February alone.
Despite initial success in suppressing insurgency through troop deployments from the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the Rwandan Defence Force, the security situation has worsened, especially after SADC troops withdrew from Cabo Delgado in July 2023.
A report from the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), referenced by Agência de Notícias de Portugal, states that 93% of the displacement was due to attacks or the fear of attacks. Most people moved from the districts of Macomia and Meluco towards district headquarters.
Since October 2017, Cabo Delgado, rich in natural gas, has been the epicenter of an armed insurgency, leading to thousands of deaths and a humanitarian crisis, with over one million people displaced.
The conflict has also impacted other districts like Muedumbe and Mocímboa da Praia, the latter once controlled by insurgents.
According to OCHA, the displaced population primarily needs food and shelter.
In 2024 alone, extremist attacks in Cabo Delgado led to the deaths of at least 349 people, a 36% increase compared to the previous year, according to the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies.
The most recent major assault occurred on May 10-11, 2024, when around 100 insurgents attacked Macomia’s district headquarters, leading to several fatalities and intense combat with Mozambique’s defense forces and Rwandan soldiers.
As a result of the escalating violence, the future of Mozambique’s LNG projects, notably the $20 billion TotalEnergies-led initiative, is increasingly uncertain.
This project, focused on constructing liquefaction units capable of producing up to 43 million tonnes of LNG per year, has already faced significant setbacks.
In addition, the Coral Floating LNG Project, spearheaded by ENI and ExxonMobil, remains at risk. Without gas extraction from Cabo Delgado, the $4.7 billion Coral FLNG facility could significantly disrupt the LNG export logistics chain.
Similarly, the Rovuma LNG Project, backed by ExxonMobil, ENI, and CNPC, has secured $30 billion in investments for gas extraction along the Cabo Delgado-Tanzania border.
As Africa House director Duncan Bonnett once stated, the combined value of Mozambique’s LNG projects is second only to the International Space Station in terms of global investment—a stark reminder of the stakes at play.
