Global container volumes saw a significant increase in January, reaching 15.4 million TEUs, marking a 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth, according to Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data.
“Based on CTS data, we calculate that global TEU miles – adjusted for nautical distance – grew 8.1% y-o-y in January, absorbing more vessel capacity,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of maritime consultancy Sea-Intelligence.
January also saw strong growth in head-haul container trades, which rose by 12.9% y-o-y.
TEU miles growth rates exceeded 20% throughout 2024, but this was primarily due to the rerouting of container services around Africa instead of through the Suez Canal, driven by the Red Sea crisis.
As a result, this growth was not reflective of underlying container demand strength.
“January 2025 marks the first month with a direct, apples-to-apples comparison of routing around Africa, meaning the 8.1% growth is indicative of real, distance-adjusted container demand,” Murphy noted.
However, he also cautioned that the shifting timing of Chinese New Year (CNY) means January figures should be interpreted with care.
To gauge market strength more accurately, one can look at utilisation rates. “Utilisation measures help mitigate concerns about CNY timing, as carriers adjust their networks to align supply with the expected seasonal drop in container demand during CNY,” Murphy explained.
On the Asia-Europe route, utilisation decreased in January, a drop that usually occurs only after CNY. This shift likely contributed to the early decline in spot rates on this route.
In contrast, the Asia-North America route saw a clear increase in utilisation in January. This trade lane also experienced spot rates holding steady longer than in Asia-Europe, reinforcing the idea that lower utilisation was behind the early drop in Asia-Europe spot rates.
On the Europe-North America route, there was a sharp decrease in utilisation in January, though surprisingly, spot rates did not drop significantly—at least not yet.
