Global iron ore shipments have declined by 7% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first seven weeks of 2025, largely due to sluggish demand from China.
Australia has been hit hardest, with exports down 10% compared to the previous year, while Brazilian shipments have fallen by 5%.
The overall demand for tonne-mile sea freight shipments of iron ore has also dropped by 6% y-o-y, according to Filipe Gouveia, shipping analysis manager at BIMCO (the Baltic and International Maritime Council).
Supply disruptions have worsened the decline. A cyclone temporarily shut down Australia’s largest iron ore port, causing a 55% plunge in shipments compared to the same week in 2024.
Port Hedland was closed due to Tropical Cyclone Zelia, a Category 5 storm that made landfall on February 14, bringing wind gusts of up to 320 km/h.
In Brazil, exports have been affected by a fire at Vale’s facilities in Port Tubarão. While Brazilian shipments have benefited from longer sailing distances, the overall impact on tonne-mile demand remains negative.
The slump in iron ore shipments has contributed to falling freight rates, with the Baltic Dry Index averaging 44% lower than last year.
The capesize segment, which transports most iron ore cargo, has seen an even sharper decline, with rates down 55% y-o-y.
China’s domestic steel demand remains a major concern. While Chinese steel exports have surged by 44%, this has not offset the weaker domestic consumption. High iron ore inventories at Chinese ports, which have persisted since July 2024, indicate an oversupply that could further depress prices and demand.
“The uncertainty surrounding China’s economic outlook could significantly impact global iron ore imports,” said Gouveia.
Looking ahead, trade tensions and tariffs on Chinese steel products may further challenge global iron ore trade, affecting production levels in major importing nations such as Japan and South Korea.
