The global shipping industry is grappling with an ageing merchant fleet, and even the current surge in shipbuilding may fall short of replacing older vessels in time, according to Xclusive Shipbrokers’ latest weekly report.
The report highlights a significant rebound in shipbuilding over the past two years, primarily fueled by a recovery in freight rates post-Covid-19.
“This surge has led to a notable increase in the orderbook-to-fleet ratios across various vessel segments,” said Xclusive Shipbrokers.
As of September 2024, the orderbook-to-fleet ratios for bulk carriers, tankers, and gas (LNG & LPG) carriers reached 10.3%, 12.9%, and 48.4%, respectively—substantial increases from previous years. Over the past two years, these ratios have grown by 43% for bulk carriers, 180% for tankers, and 29% for gas carriers.
In the container segment, however, the orderbook-to-fleet ratio has declined by 10% since 2022, now standing at 10.8% in terms of vessel count and 24.6% in terms of TEU capacity. This decrease reflects subdued freight rates over the past two years.
The expansion of shipbuilding is also evident in the rise in active shipyards, which have grown by 17.7% since June 2022, reaching 180 worldwide by September 2024. Chinese shipyards have significantly contributed to this growth, with a 37% increase in active facilities, while Japanese and South Korean shipyard numbers have remained stable.
Despite the increase in orders and shipyards, the industry faces a substantial challenge: an ageing fleet. Xclusive Shipbrokers forecasts that a large share of today’s vessels will surpass 20 years of age by 2030, posing challenges in terms of operational efficiency and environmental sustainability, especially as the IMO 2030 environmental goals approach.
In the bulk carrier segment, nearly 30% of the fleet, both in vessel count and deadweight tonnage (DWT), will be over 20 years old by 2030. This ageing trend is especially pronounced in larger vessels, with 27-28% of Supramax/Ultramax, Panamax/Kmax, and Cape/Nuke ships set to exceed 21 years of age by 2030.
The tanker fleet faces similar issues, with approximately 48% of the current fleet, representing 284.89 million DWT, set to be over 21 years old by 2030. Within this, Panamax/LR1 and Handysize/MR1 segments are particularly vulnerable, with 62% and 66% of their respective fleets expected to surpass 21 years by 2030.
Container and gas carriers are also impacted. By 2030, 49% of the container fleet in terms of vessels and TEU will be over 21 years old, particularly affecting smaller container vessels (3,000 to 7,999 TEU), of which 60% will exceed 21 years. In the gas carrier segment, 42% of the fleet will be over 21 years old by that time.
Xclusive Shipbrokers cautions that, despite recent shipbuilding activity, the current delivery rate of around 1,200 vessels annually will likely only replace about 70% of the vessels aged over 21 by 2030, leaving the industry with a persistent challenge in modernizing its fleet.
