DHL has expressed optimism for the first quarter of 2025, forecasting continued growth in airfreight volumes.
During a recent webinar, Tim Robertson, Chief Executive for the Americas at DHL Global Forwarding, shared his insights on airfreight trends for the upcoming year.
Robertson noted that, following a strong fourth quarter, significant changes in airfreight patterns are not expected in Q1.
He highlighted a rise in airfreight volumes from the Asia-Pacific region in Q3 2024 compared to the same period last year, largely due to e-commerce companies securing much of the available cargo capacity.
The company anticipates an increase in airfreight demand post-Golden Week in China, which is expected to continue into the new year.
Third-quarter airfreight volumes showed a mid-single-digit increase compared to Q3 2023, with robust exports from Asia driven by the ‘China Plus One’ strategy, which is expected to persist.
Robertson also pointed to potential airfreight demand increases stemming from disruptions caused by a recent brief strike at US East and Gulf Coast container ports.
The strike, which occurred from October 2-4, led to a temporary agreement between the International Longshoremen’s Association and the US Maritime Alliance, extending the Master Contract until January 15, 2025.
However, if further strikes occur beyond this date, they may happen during the quieter period following the fourth-quarter peak.
He emphasized that even brief port shutdowns often result in significant delays. While the recent strike was short-lived, its effects are likely to extend into Q4, with recovery times for US logistics chains expected to be at least three weeks.
To mitigate potential disruptions during peak season, DHL has advised customers to advance their shipping schedules.
Robertson noted that importers are now reassessing their strategies for the next four to six weeks and considering faster transport options, such as consolidated airfreight or time-definite express services.
Smaller and mid-sized retailers are seeking quicker solutions, while larger retailers with greater financial resources are better positioned to front-load shipments.
Additionally, the diversion of ships to US West Coast ports to bypass the East Coast strike is adding congestion and extended dwell times.
DHL predicts that export bookings made in the week ending October 6 are unlikely to be shipped for another three to four weeks.
The company has already observed an uptick in expedited export solutions, a trend expected to continue into Q4 for shipments to Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
Robertson cautioned that the implications of the port strike on export flows from the US and Canada during the peak season should not be underestimated.
