Air cargo spot rates between Europe and the US have increased by 7% month-on-month in February 2025, reaching $2.46 per kilogram.
This rise contrasts with other corridors, such as Northeast Asia to the US, which saw a 14% decline, and highlights significant shifts in the airfreight market, according to Xeneta’s latest data.
While the transatlantic corridor experienced growth, it was not driven by a sudden surge in demand. Instead, the rise can be attributed to a “capacity pull phenomenon.”
This occurs when airlines reduce belly capacity in winter, reaching its lowest point in February before gradually increasing in March.
Additionally, many carriers have shifted dedicated freighter capacity from the transatlantic route to the more lucrative Asian market, capitalizing on the booming e-commerce sector.
Xeneta noted that the dynamic load factor for the transatlantic corridor hovered around 80% in February, a level typically seen during peak season.
This shift in capacity has resulted in spot rates remaining over 70 cents higher than usual seasonal rates, giving freight sellers more negotiating power.
The global trade environment remains volatile, with factors like the potential reimposition of tariffs under the US Trump administration’s trade policies adding uncertainty.
Xeneta warned that sudden tariff changes could limit shippers’ ability to mitigate cost impacts and dampen demand for transatlantic freight.
Additionally, the rising volume of exports from Asia, particularly in e-commerce, could indirectly affect the transatlantic market.
While the US-China trade conflict slows transpacific air cargo demand, a potential geopolitical shift in the Middle East could result in a return to container shipping, reducing reliance on airfreight.
Shippers are advised to adopt a “cautious yet flexible approach,” monitoring policy changes closely, especially those affecting US tariffs and international trade.
Xeneta suggests postponing contract negotiations until the second quarter to secure more competitive rates, given the uncertainty in global markets.
To navigate this volatility, shippers should use real-time benchmarking data, consider shifting to index-linked contracts, and diversify sourcing routes to reduce reliance on any single market.
Despite the current turbulence, Xeneta emphasized that shippers must adapt to an increasingly uncertain environment to maintain their competitive edge.
